Bit of a tempest in a teacup this month: lots of bad and dramatic news, but in the end, really decent portfolio performance. Bonds made a big comeback, helping the Qian portfolio win the month. RPC Stability still in first overall, but its lead is shrinking.
There was a lot of news this past month that might have portended another painful month for the portfolios and investors of all stripes. A couple of bank runs in the US, a government takeover of a large Swiss Bank, Debit Suisse, I mean Credit Suisse, a huge five-day decline in the stock price of my brokerage firm, Charles Schwab, plus money pouring into “safe” assets like Treasuries at a pace reminiscent of major market declines.
Through it all, though, none of the panicked news seemed to leave much of a major impression on the portfolios, as all twelve I track finished the month up, with the lowest (The RPC Stability) up .42%, and the best (the Qian) up 5.4%. It was especially nice news for that portfolio. Its bond-heavy allocation has really struggled over the past 18 months or so of falling prices/rising rates to the point where I was wondering if I would need to throw in the towel on it.
Treasuries were a big winner for the month. VGIT and VGLT were up 3.1% and 4.7%, respectively, and then the 3X leveraged fund versions of those, TYD and TMF, were up 10.5% and 12.9%. The Qian portfolio, with 54% allocated to bonds, followed suit. Bonds were not the month’s biggest winner, though. That belongs to GDLC, the Greyscale Digital Currency Trust, which climbed 14.8%. Gold also did well in the month, with GLDM up 7.9%. Small-cap value US equities and Managed Futures struggled this month among non-leveraged assets, and TNA (the 3X leveraged small-cap fund) was worst of all.
Risk Parity portfolios did fine in the month, but then so did traditional stock/bond splits, so there was no real lesson to draw on that subject. The All Seasons finished second, up 3.2%, and the Levered Butterfly was third, up 2.9%. On the traditional side, the 100% Equities was fifth, the 80/20 sixth, and the 60/40 seventh, meaning that the portfolios bringing up the rear were other Risk Parity portfolios.
The RPC Stability was up a (comparatively) measly .42%, but that’s to be expected in months like these. In good months, it has the least juice to take advantage of those times. Overall, it is still the best performer since July 2021, though it now leads by only about $4000 over the Golden Butterfly. The RPC Growth portfolio is now in last place, still waiting for a big bull market to pull it along.