June 2022 Portfolio Review

The declines will continue until morale improves, I guess. Another bad month for all portfolios, with the same silver lining: the RP portfolios did less awfully than others! Small consolation, though, when even the “best” lost 4%.

2022/06 Portfolio Review Spreadsheet
Comp Prev. Mnthly Inflation,Classic 60/40,Golden Butterfly,All Seasons,RPC Stability,RPC Income,Bogleheads 80/20,Qian,Levered Butterfly,100% Equities,RPC Growth,Levered Seasons7/1/2022,0.717%,-6.00%,-4.55%,-4.36%,-4.21%,-6.27%,-7.34%,-5.98%,-7.32%,-8.67%,-8.82%,-8.13%Month’s Rank,5,3,2,1,6,7,4...

Yet another bad month for the portfolio and investors, in general. The declines in the market continue to be a stress-test for the viability of an investment portfolio that you need to live on, as declines in multiple asset classes pushed all portfolios far underwater, with the best (the RPC Stability) declining 4.2% and the worst losing 8.8% (the RPC Growth).

In terms of assets, equities, whether they be the total US market, small-cap value, or international, declined from 7 to 8%. The 3X leveraged versions of the S&P and of small-cap stocks then did triple that.The dip in bond prices were much more modest, in the zero to negative 2 percent range. On the positive side, managed futures was the only asset to have a truly good month, with DBMF finishing the month up 2.7%. Yet even wheelbarrows full of managed futures n your portfolio wouldn’t have made much of a difference if you had even a scoop full of digital currency in as well, with GDLC down an unbelievable 36% in June alone. Actually, pretty believable - it was down 37% in May!

The broad decline left no portfolio undamaged. The RPC Stability portfolio continued its place at the top, likely due to having at least one slice of it (the managed futures) do well, and then also not having any leveraged assets to turn the bad into disastrous. The second and third best portfolios were the All Seasons and the Golden Butterfly, at -4.4 and -4.6% respectively. Looking at them cumulatively, the RPC Stability is still on top, with a total of 9.3% lost, though keep in mind of course this also includes subtracting roughly an inflation-adjusted 4% on an annual basis.

One the negative side, the highly leveraged portfolios finished 8th, 9th, and 11th, interrupted in their streak by the 100% Equities portfolio that finished down 8.7%. These portfolios are struggling to survive the 4% rule, or actually, would struggle to handle even a 3% or 2% rule, for that matter.

Luckily, these are just test portfolios and can learn lessons from this declining period without having to feel pressured by their steady disintegration. I started these test portfolios one year ago, and at least we can say it has been instructive!

Monthly Results:

June 2022 Monthly Performance

Cumulative Results:

Cumulative Performance as of July 1, 2022

Asset Performance: