Quarterly Review for October, November, and December, 2021. Strong growth in stocks and commodities in the fourth quarter made for lots of good news at end of 2021. Inflation is high and looks to be strengthening, though.
* At this time, I was tracking portfolios on a quarterly basis, so this refers to the fourth quarter of 2021
This was a very different quarter than the previous one. In the third quarter, every single portfolio lost to inflation, even before withdrawals were taken out. This quarter, even though inflation was even higher, every portfolio beat inflation after quarterly living expenses were deducted. The RPC Growth portfolio led the way with almost 6% growth in the quarter, with the other aggressive funds following close behind at second and fourth. The Bogleheads 80/20 snuck in between them into third.
The asset story this quarter was the commodities fund, PDBC. It’s share price plummeted by 34%, but this was largely a reflection of the aftermath of its huge dividend – almost 7 dollars per share (when the share price was around $21). For the Leveraged Butterfly portfolio, for example, this meant a dividend of $68,000, more than enough to cover the withdrawals for the year, though practically this meant just subtracting living expenses and then plowing the excess back into the portfolios. UPRO and DRN, leveraged funds for large cap blend and real estate, respectively, also had amazing quarters. TNA, the leveraged small cap fund that brought down so many portfolios in quarter 3 was down again, though not by very much. Bond funds tended negative, as well.
Reflecting the inflation from Quarter 3, the withdrawal amount jumped from $10,000 to $10,132. An even bigger inflation bump is in store from withdrawals next quarter, as well.